基于古诺模型的银行市场分析

运用寡头市场中的古诺模型来试图构建银行市场的竞争模型,分析市场变化的影响,找出银行业在各行业竞争中的最佳选择,并在此基础上判断我国银行市场未来发展的趋势,同时在银行市场行为方面提出正确应对外资银行的介入、积极维护存贷款市场业务等建议.     

我国商业银行一线网点服务质量研究

通过构建科学的服务质量评价体系,对国内四类商业银行问卷调查数据,通过信度分析、相关性分析和多元线性分析回归进行实证研究。研究大型银行一线网点服务质量整体情况,并对比各类银行客户满意度的差异,得出结论并提出整合业务流程,强化房产关系,优化服务质量,加强可靠建设的可行性对策。     

Aid allocation rules

This paper studies an aid allocation rule used by major development agencies, and investigates optimal allocations when recipients are neoclassical economies undergoing transition dynamics. When recipients face aid absorption constraints, allocations that favor poorer recipients are not always optimal, contrary to what is assumed in assessments of donor performance. The most quantitatively significant factors that determine the optimal sensitivity to recipient characteristics are the generosity of the aid budget and the extent of absorption constraints. In neoclassical recipients, aid can only accelerate growth where there is already growth, so the optimal rule places little weight on growth and optimality is largely a matter of balancing recipient need against absorption constraints.     

Wealth effects and agency costs

We analyze how the agent's initial wealth affects the principal's expected profits in the standard principal–agent model with moral hazard.We show that if the principal prefers a poorer agent for all specifications of action sets, probability distributions, and disutility of effort, then the agent's utility of income must exhibit a coefficient of absolute prudence less than three times the coefficient of absolute risk aversion for all levels of income, thus strengthening the sufficiency result of Thiele and Wambach (1999). Also, we prove that there is no condition on the agent's utility of income alone that will make the principal prefer richer agents. Moreover, we show that, for an interesting class of problems, the principal prefers a relatively poorer agent if agent's wealth is sufficiently large. Finally, we discuss how alternative ways of modeling the agent's outside option affects the principal's preferences for agent's wealth.     

用数学模型求解票据转贴现中的盈亏平衡点

近几年,票据转贴现业务在银行间市场兴起,并迅速壮大,但关于该业务的报价分析和深入研究几乎是空白。作者结合对银行资金交易的全面了解,以及工作中对票据转贴现业务的深入分析,找出对票据转贴现盈亏起决定作用的因素,进而,依据＂盈亏平衡＂理论,建立数学模型,精确推导出合理的贴现率报价,使得报价行在保证持有票据期间的期望收益率后,最大化持有期收益或最小化持有期的亏损。     

Discrete credit barrier models

The model introduced in this article is designed to provide a consistent representation for both the real-world and pricing measures for the credit process. We find that good agreement with historical and market data can be achieved across all credit ratings simultaneously. The model is characterized by an underlying stochastic process that takes on values on a discrete lattice and represents credit quality. Rating transitions are associated with barrier crossings and default events are associated with an absorbing state. The stochastic process has state-dependent volatility and jumps which are estimated by using empirical migration and default rates. A risk-neutralizing drift is estimated to consistently match the average spread curves corresponding to all the various ratings.     

The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

空中乘务专业认同测量模型及其实证研究

综合采用文献分析与深度访谈，提出了空中乘务专业认同四维度测量模型，它包括：专业教学、专业前景、专业意识及专业发展。开发并验证了用于测量空中乘务专业认同的量表。实证结果表明：开发的量表具有良好的信效度。对开展空中乘务专业认同优化管理提供参考依据。     

Willingness to pay for safety improvements in passenger air travel

The risk of being involved in an airplane accident is largely ignored in air passengers’ choice models. The reason presumably is that it is hard to operationalize, because objective safety indicators often involve extremely low probabilities that are hard to grasp and interpret by passengers. In this paper, we propose an operationalization that is based on the perception of safety, which is easy to understand and resonates that perceptions often influence decisions stronger than objective variables. We conceptualize that passengers form a safety perception score of a particular flight based on their perception of airline and route attributes and that this score in turn is traded-off against other flight attributes, such as ticket costs, to arrive at a flight choice. In line with this conceptualization, two stated preference experiments are conducted. In a first experiment, combinations of airline and route attributes are evaluated in terms of safety that is captured on a rating scale. In a second experiment, safety perception is treated as an attribute and traded-off against other flight attributes to arrive at a flight choice. The paper presents the results of a regression and a Panel Mixed Logit model estimated from responses obtained from a convenience sample of 161 air passengers recruited in the Netherlands. The results of both models are then combined to calculate the willingness to pay values for improvements made to a range of airline and route attributes, taking into account socio-demographic variables and psychological traits. As expected, the results indicate that the willingness to pay for improving safety decreases with higher initial safety levels.     

Home-related injuries among under-five-year children and mothers' care regarding injury prevention in rural areas

This cross-sectional study was conducted in rural areas of Twiserkan (Toyserkan) County, in Iran, to assess factors associated with home-related injuries among under-five-year children and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention. Mothers who had their under-five-year-old children injured within a 12-month period were identified from recorded information in Twiserkan Health Center. Then, data were gathered using pre-tested questionnaire and through interview with injured children's mothers. The questions were about characteristics of the children's injuries and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention, using PRECEDE (Predisposing, Reinforcing, and Enabling Constructs in Educational/Environmental Diagnosis and Evaluation) model with focus on knowledge and attitude; enabling and reinforcing factors; and mothers' preventive behaviours. The study results showed that 197 out of 210 total identified mothers took part in the study. The reported injuries were 11.68%, 39.09%, and 49.24%, respectively, for severe, moderate, and mild cases. Fall was the most frequent injury with 35%. Among PRECEDE model constructs, there was a statistically significant correlation between mothers' knowledge and injury severity among children. Home-related injuries are an important health problem among study population and their prediction and prevention are necessary. Enhancement of mothers’ knowledge can be helpful to improve child injury prevention.